How Long Can I Rely on Social Security?
Every seminar we conduct, without fail, the question pops up… “Will social security even be around much longer? I might as well get it as soon as I can while it’s still there!”
The conclusion makes sense, given all of the headlines we see about Social Security’s solvency issues.
However, there might be a better way to think through it…
Every year the OASDI releases its Trustees Report, giving the status of social security. The above chart is from the 2022 report.
In a nutshell, Social Security is funded by two things: (1) yearly payroll taxes and (2) the Social Security Trust Fund. From 1935 when social security was created until around 2010, we had more coming in from yearly payroll taxes than we had going out in social security payments. The excess each year was put into the Social Security Trust Fund.
Starting in 2010, social security payments exceeded payroll taxes, so ever since we’ve been dipping into the Trust Fund. What the chart above shows is that the Trust Fund is projected to run out of money by the year 2035, at which point, if nothing is done, social security payments would have to be reduced to 80% of current benefits from 2035 to 2096.
Now, will social security payments actually be reduced by 20% beginning in 2035?
Based on what we know, the probabilities seem to suggest they won’t:
- Over 50% of retirees rely on social security for more than half of their income
- Over 25% of retirees rely on social security for 90% or more of their income
- Baby Boomers are one of the largest voting blocs, and they show up to vote…
nobody wants a baby boomer riot!!
There are already some reasonable remedies that have been discussed that, if they were to be implemented, would solve the problem. A few examples:
- Increase the Social Security Tax Rate from 6.2% to 7.8%
- Increase the Full Retirement Age for younger workers (this has been done in the past)
- Increase the Social Security Earnings Cap (In 2024 you only pay on the first $168,600)
There are no such things as certainties, only probabilities.
But, if it’s true that the probabilities are such that social security will be around for the foreseeable future as we believe it will be, you should probably do your best to maximize your social security benefit!
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